One of the major triggers I’ve been warning about is already happening, even before we understand and/or admit that we are in a recession.
Global corporate debt now sits at a record $51 trillion and is poised to hit $75 trillion by 2020 – just four years away. If interest rates rise and the economy slows, it will be very hard for companies to roll these bonds over – and then we get what S&P Global Ratings is calling “Crexit.”
The bond markets dry up for corporate lending, especially higher-yield junk bonds. This would set off a chain of corporate defaults and bankruptcies that would cause central banks to start to lose control of the economy, as they did in 2008 forward.
The simplest depiction of where we’re at comes from the chart below:
At the worst of the recession in 2009, we saw around 180 total corporate bond or loan defaults. As of the first half of 2016 alone, we just hit 100. That means 200+ by year-end… and we’re just at the beginning of the next financial crisis. Note that most of the 2009 defaults were in the U.S., as is the case again due to the energy “frackers.” But Europe has a bigger flurry coming this time.
The next chart shows how that crisis is likely to progress:
We’re now nearing 5% default rates, as opposed to heights of 16% in 2009. Hence, we have a long way to go here – 300%+ or more, and I fully expect the next crisis to be much deeper than 2008/2009. After hitting …