From Moon of Alabama:
(Please also read the updated tweets below. There are some very interesting nuggets in there that are not yet reflected in the text.)
Yesterday’s short coup attempt (real time MoA) by parts of the military against the wannabe-Sultan of Turkey failed. Some 200 people on both sides were killed, some 1,200 wounded.
The plotters’ major mistakes were:
Erdogan escaped and could orchestrate the counter to the coup. He could continue to communicate with his security management, foreign politicians and his supporters. Without any well known alternative leader the public had only Erdogan to follow.
The amateurish behavior of the coup plotter opens the question of who ran this show. Was this, as some asserted early on, an Erdogan plot to seize more power?
There are three possible motives/perpetrators behind this coup:
There is no evidence for any of these theses and none of them clearly fits the observed pattern.
The response will be harsh. Edogan will crack down on ANYONE he politically or personally dislikes – completely independent of their involvement in the coup. All political parties, even the mostly Kurdish HDP, spoke out against the coup while it was ongoing. The religious Gülen movement also opposed it. Most of the involved soldiers were told that they were part of an exercise. It will not save any of them from Erdogan’s and his supporters’ wrath.
The somewhat coup-supportive early statements from Lavrov (“avoid bloodshed”) and Kerry (“stability!”) will increase Erdogan’s mistrust of any foreign official.
Erdogan will now become even more paranoid and unpredictable than he was before. The domestic atmosphere in Turkey will become extremely strained.
A few relevant recent tweets (see last post for many earlier ones):
I’ll put on my tinfoil hat re TK. What kind of coup waits til bossman’s out of town & doesn’t try …