Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady

From FiveThirtyEight:

Here are the eight most recently conducted national polls, according to our database:

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Note: As of 10 a.m. on Aug. 16.

These surveys have a few things in common. Other than Gravis Marketing, which doesn’t poll the race on a set schedule, they’re all daily or weekly tracking polls. Also, they were all conducted online, via automated calls (“robopolls”) or through some combination thereof; there are no traditional telephone polls in the bunch.

And they seem to tell a consistent story about where the race stands. All of them have Clinton up by about 5 percentage points, give or take a percentage point or two.1

That’s not bad for Clinton, but it might seem to suggest that her lead over Trump has abated. A week or so ago, we were seeing leads for Clinton in the mid- to high single digits, with occasional forays into the double digits. Overall, she seemed to be ahead by 7 to 8 percentage points.

So what’s changed? Is Clinton’s convention bounce finally wearing off? Actually, pretty much nothing has changed, according to these polls. Because while we were seeing our fair share of 8- and 10-point leads for Clinton, we generally weren’t seeing them from this group of pollsters, which are (with a couple of exceptions) a Trump-leaning bunch.

Instead, these polls have been steady, at least on average. The table below compares each poll’s most recent result to its previous edition,2 as well as to each poll’s long-term average (that is, to the average of every previous edition of the survey going back to November 2015). On average, the most recent edition of these surveys shows Clinton up by 4.8 percentage points. But the …

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