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Donald Trump has a 33 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only forecast and a 34 percent chance according to polls-plus. These roughly 1 in 3 odds are close to Trump’s highs since the party conventions.
Trump has had a reasonably strong couple of days in the polls, and the odds according to our forecast have resumed moving slowly but steadily toward him after having flattened out toward the end of last week. As is often the case, however, it’s hard to attribute causality. Hillary Clinton has had a series of negative news cycles — first after her Friday night remark that half of Trump supporters fall into a “basket of deplorables” and then after she abruptly left a Sept. 11 memorial event on Sunday and a video captured her appearing to stumble into her vehicle. It was later revealed that Clinton had been diagnosed with pneumonia.
If you want to make the case that the weekend’s news has moved the polls, there are a couple of them that you might cite prominently. First is the latest edition of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll; it shows a fairly dramatic swing, with the race going from a 1-percentage-point lead for Clinton to a 5-point lead for Trump over the past few days. Although the LA Times poll has had a strong pro-Trump house effect, the trend line in the poll can be useful because the poll re-interviews the same respondents over and over instead of finding a new sample of voters.
The other scary result for Clinton is a Selzer & …