The polls are coming in fast now. About 20 polls have been released today, and they confirm that Hillary Clinton still leads the presidential race but by a smaller margin than a few weeks ago. The FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast gives her a 68 percent chance of winning the election, while the polls-plus forecast has her at a 67 percent chance. That’s about where both candidates stood yesterday.
Some of Emerson’s results — one poll showed Clinton up only 3 percentage points in Rhode Island, for instance — seem favorable to Trump relative to other polls and demographics in each state. (Keep in mind Emerson doesn’t call cellphones, and many younger voters, who favor Clinton over Trump, don’t have land lines.) Other Emerson’s polls — the firm found Clinton with a large advantage in New York — comport with the evidence we already had.
But perhaps the most interesting finding came from Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Emerson puts Trump at 41 percent and Clinton at 36 percent. Both our polls-only and polls-plus models now have Trump with about a 63 percent chance of winning the 2nd district, which covers most of Maine north of Portland, even though Mitt Romney lost it by nearly 10 points in 2012. Because Maine is one of only two states (along with Nebraska) to assign some of its electoral votes by congressional district, Trump would win …