From The Washington Post:
States that have no business being competitive — Missouri, Alaska, Utah, to name three — are suddenly within the margin of error in credible polls. States where Trump needs to win — Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina — look as if they are slipping away from him.
To reflect that changing reality, we are making four changes to The Fix electoral map this week — all benefiting Hillary Clinton. We are moving Florida and North Carolina from ‘toss-up’ to ‘lean Democratic.’ And we are adding Alaska and Missouri to our list of competitive races as ‘lean Republican’ states.[Fix Forecast: The race for president]
Florida — with its 29 electoral votes — is the biggest mover of the week. Trump ran well in his second home state during the primary season and stood toe to toe with Clinton in polling for much of the general-election campaign.
But, Clinton has now built a lead — 3.5 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average — and has held an edge over Trump in nine out of the last 10 polls conducted in the state. Those numbers, coupled with Trump’s anemic organization in the state and Clinton’s muscular one, suggest that the Democratic nominee has the advantage as of today.
Much the same thing is happening to Trump in North Carolina. After running even or slightly ahead of Clinton in the state during the summer, he now finds himself consistently behind her in polling. While Clinton’s lead is less than three points in the RealClearPolitics average (it’s 2.9), she has led in each of the 10 most recent polls. The North Carolina move is especially problematic for Trump since Mitt Romney won the Tarheel State in 2012 even while receiving just 206 electoral votes.
We’re also adding two traditionally Republican states to our …