Scientists probe lightning hotspot to predict future strikes

From Nature:

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Northern Venezuela is home to a lightning hotspot.

Most people avoid spending time in lightning-prone locales. But this month, scientists are heading to an area of Venezuela that sees more lightning strikes than anywhere else in the world, to test a system designed to forecast strike frequency up to three months in advance.

They are going to the right place: the region around Lake Maracaibo in northern Venezuela, which normally surpasses 200 strikes per square kilometre each year1. The researchers — led by Ángel Muñoz, a climate scientist at Princeton University in New Jersey — will monitor atmospheric conditions and lightning strikes there for the next 3 years, collecting data for 72-hour periods every 3 months.

Muñoz and his team will compare these data with projections from a lightning model that they have developed2, in the hope of producing a system that can accurately predict lightning frequency in this part of Venezuela months in advance. Such projections could help to improve the safety of rural, fishing and farming communities, the oil and gas industry and power grids.

“Can we say something about lightning activity three months in advance?” asks Muñoz. “We’re showing that it’s not only possible, but that forecasts in this part of the world are actually very skilful.”

But expanding that model to other regions might be difficult, says Andrew Dowdy, a climate scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne. His research has shown3 that the weather cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation helps to create lightning patterns that differ by season and by region.

Furthermore, a lack of long-term lightning observations in many parts of the world makes it difficult to separate the influence of climate change from variations in weather caused by local effects such as the expansion of urban heat islands. …

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