Hillary Clinton received the backing of Rep. Richard Hanna of New York on Tuesday. Hanna is the first Republican member of Congress to say explicitly that he will vote for Clinton in the fall rather than just expressing opposition to Trump. Hanna may not be the last elected Republican to jump to Clinton, but he illustrates the contours of anti-Trump Republicans nicely: The most anti-Trump GOP voters look a lot more like John Kasich’s supporters (and Hanna) than Ted Cruz’s.1
There seem to be two main camps of Republican opposition to Trump. One, embodied by Kasich, objects to Trump on experiential and temperamental grounds — Trump is playing to cultural grievances on issues such as immigration, and the Kasich camp wants a more inclusive GOP. The other, embodied by Cruz, objects to Trump on ideological grounds — he’s not a conservative, they argue.
Both Cruz and Kasich have refused to endorse Trump. But, as Hanna shows, the Kasich camp appears to be the one more likely to oppose Trump in the general election.
During the primary season, Kasich did best in the Northeast and East North Central Census divisions. He also scored big with the well-educated and liberal-to-moderate Republicans. All of these characteristics match Hanna, a college-educated moderate from the Northeast. Among all Republicans who match these descriptions, Trump got just 65 percent to Clinton’s 20 percent and 15 percent undecided in a June SurveyMonkey poll2 done for FiveThirtyEight. That is, to put it mildly, incredibly poor for a Republican presidential nominee among a subset of Republican voters. In the same poll, Trump got 85 percent among all voters who …