Donald Trump’s once-sagging poll numbers rebounded nationally after cratering post-convention. He’s doing better now in battlegrounds where he needs to win the White House — and where Republicans are defending their toughest Senate seats — but overall still narrowly lags Hillary Clinton.
Some Republican seats once thought to be sure-wins for Democrats, such as Ohio and Florida, are moving off the table. But now, seats in typically safe GOP turf, such as Indiana and Missouri, are at real risk of flipping. It’s a much different path to the majority than either party had expected.
But ultimately, two months away from Election Day, there are plentiful pick-up opportunities for Democrats to get to the five seats they need (or four with a Clinton victory) to win the majority. Many of the races have tightened — and Republicans are still very much in the game — but it’s increasingly looking like a narrow majority for Democrats is the most probable outcome.
Here are our latest ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip on Nov. 8. Check out our previous rankings here.
1. Illinois (R-Kirk) Previous rank: 1
Mark Kirk has tried his best to separate himself from his party’s nominee. In May, he became the first GOP senator up for re-election to withdraw his endorsement of Donald Trump after the Republican nominee made derisive comments about Mexican-American Judge Gonzalo Curiel. He followed that up with an anti-Trump TV ad touting his independence. When Trump met with Senate Republicans last month, he singled Kirk out as a “loser” and predicted he would carry the state in the presidential race. The reality is that Trump will surely lose the heavily blue state in a landslide. While Kirk will run …